Developments in the communications market and their impact on the financing of media through advertising

Arcom and the French Ministry of Culture's Direction Générale des Médias et des Industries Culturelles(DGMIC) have commissioned PMP Strategy to carry out an economic and prospective study, with the aim of assessing the French advertising market's development prospects to 2030. This study is based on the analysis of numerous French and international databases, and on exchanges with 80 interlocutors over the period October-December 2023. Forecasts are based on a constant regulatory framework.

Market growth is expected to remain steady (+2.3% p.a.), with total media revenues reaching 18.3 billion euros by 2030, driven among other things by the continued streaming of "non-media" spending to digital media, particularly retail media. Digital players will capture a growing share of the market: 65% in 2030 (versus 52% today), with the four major non-European platforms (Alphabet, Meta, Amazon and Tiktok) accounting for 45%. Digital revenues from incumbent players will continue to increase (+400 million euros over the period), and will represent a growing but still modest share of the total advertising market (6.4% in 2030 versus 5.2% in 2022). These additional revenues will not compensate for the shrinking of their traditional revenues. Finally, media that invest in news and creative content (most of the historical media, but also certain video-on-demand services) will see their resources continue to decline: 7.3 billion euros in 2012, 6.1 in 2022, and 5.3 in 2030, representing a future decrease of -800 million euros by 2030.